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【研究機構(gòu)】清華大學汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)與技術(shù)戰(zhàn)略研究院
【資助單位】殼牌氫能
【關(guān)鍵詞】氫能、燃料電池、加氫站、區(qū)域優(yōu)勢
【摘要】
1、氫能作為高效的多用途能源，在中國能源市場的應用場景中優(yōu)勢突出，氫能經(jīng)濟發(fā)展逐漸成為中國社會關(guān)注焦點
2、中國氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展具備政策及市場支撐，優(yōu)勢區(qū)域有望率先進入?yún)^(qū)域性氫能社會
3、建議將氫能作為能源管理而非?；诽幚?，進一步明確氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)的國家主管部門
4、氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈相關(guān)國家標準及規(guī)范應盡快建立，并與國際標準協(xié)調(diào)完善，以期盡早釋放中國氫能發(fā)展?jié)摿?/span>
5、燃料電池車是氫能應用的主要場景，加氫站建設是實現(xiàn)燃料電池車發(fā)展的必要條件加氫站建設應結(jié)合產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展進行科學布局
氫能與燃料電池車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展協(xié)同性較強
中國新能源車汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展目前仍以政策驅(qū)動為主，在國家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策引導下，新能源汽車市場占比逐漸提高并最終形成市場驅(qū)動。
純電汽車（BEV）、燃料電池車（FCV）各自優(yōu)劣勢特點明顯，因此在發(fā)展策略上，BEV與FCV存在明顯差異，但互為補充。
中國地域廣闊，各地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟環(huán)境、能源環(huán)境、政策環(huán)境等方面存在差異，因此中國氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展存在明顯的區(qū)域性特點，很難實現(xiàn)全國性的氫能社會，但在具備氫源優(yōu)勢、基礎設施規(guī)劃明確、政策支持力度大等要素的部分區(qū)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)區(qū)域性氫能社會的可能性更大。
氫燃料電池車未來將成為氫能應用、推動氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主要動因之一。作為新能源汽車領域的后起之秀，燃料電池車憑借高效、清潔、續(xù)駛里程長、加氫快速、適應性強等特點得到市場廣泛關(guān)注，同時也將加速燃料電池車的商業(yè)化進程。
氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)與燃料電池車的發(fā)展存在協(xié)同性，加氫站是兩者之間的關(guān)鍵紐帶，因此加氫站的建設運營顯得尤為重要，區(qū)位選擇應結(jié)合氫源、市場需求情況、政府支持力度等區(qū)域特點綜合分析。
燃料電池車的發(fā)展應用取決于氫能社會的實現(xiàn)程度，否則燃料電池車只能是無本之木，燃料電池車的發(fā)展帶來氫氣需求，將促進氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)加速發(fā)展。但中國需進一步明確氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)的國家主管部門，氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展應立足能源而非危險化學品的管理思路，以期與現(xiàn)行國際法規(guī)及標準相協(xié)調(diào)。
政府部門推動+企業(yè)投資熱情 → 燃料電池車熱點再起
中國氫能-燃料電池車的發(fā)展動因是多方面的，國務院、發(fā)改委制定氫能-燃料電池車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展頂層設計，科技部推動技術(shù)研發(fā)，工信部跟進落地實施產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展；乘用車雙積分政策疊加即將到來的商用車雙積分政策，促使新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)加速發(fā)展；燃料電池車（FCV）較純電動車（BEV）在重型商用車領域更具適用性；各地政府企業(yè)積極響應布局氫能-燃料電池車產(chǎn)業(yè)，預計2025年中國將迎來產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展拐點。
中國將從燃料電池商用車起步，市場前景廣闊
中國燃料電池車具備市場及政策支撐，在政府主導下，有望在商用車領域首先形成突破，2018年中國商用車產(chǎn)量已達1527輛。
中國燃料電池汽車市場在2030年左右將從政策主導向市場主導轉(zhuǎn)型
在氫能及燃料電池產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展初期，基礎設施不完善、成本高昂及關(guān)鍵技術(shù)將成為市場化推廣的阻礙，發(fā)展有賴于政策推動；隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈及基礎設施的完善，燃料電池乘用車逐步進入市場，推動燃料電池車產(chǎn)業(yè)進入商業(yè)化可持續(xù)發(fā)展階段。
中國加氫站布局區(qū)域研究
中國區(qū)域氫能社會的形成應具備政府政策的推動、氫源優(yōu)勢、地方的產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎、龍頭企業(yè)帶動 、經(jīng)濟環(huán)境良好、市場需求等要素，因此在進行加氫站的區(qū)域選擇時應充分考慮這些要求。
綜合區(qū)域氫能社會形成各要素分析，長三角、珠三角及北京-張家口地區(qū)未來率先進入?yún)^(qū)域氫能社會的可能性較大，可率先進行加氫站布局。
區(qū)位布局是加氫站建設運營的關(guān)鍵
對加氫站建設運營而言，在關(guān)鍵地區(qū)進行功能區(qū)位的選擇與運營效果直接相關(guān)，且至關(guān)重要。根據(jù)區(qū)域氫能-燃料電池車應用特點，在不同的發(fā)展階段應選擇不同的布局地點。
早期建議以物流集散地、公交場站為主，中期圍繞高速區(qū)域、長途汽車站、碼頭布局，后期可能實現(xiàn)氫能社會城市廣泛布局。
加氫站運營是業(yè)務落地、實現(xiàn)商業(yè)目標的直接體現(xiàn)，合作模式是必要的：充分利用各自資源，解決加氫站發(fā)展面臨的土地、資金、技術(shù)、運營、法規(guī)、補貼等問題。
中國加氫站建設應以撬裝式為主，固定式加氫站為輔
加氫站建設方式主要分為三種：固定式加氫站、撬裝式加氫站、臨時加氫裝置，加氫站技術(shù)路線應結(jié)合不同應用場景特點，選擇不同加氫站建設模式。
中國加氫站建設初期應以撬裝式加氫站為主，配以外供氫（高壓氣態(tài)存儲），在具備可再生能源自制氫的發(fā)達地區(qū)可適當布局固定式加氫站，例如：風電能源充足的張家口地區(qū)。
高壓氣態(tài)儲氫是目前商業(yè)應用的主要方式，液氫加氫站是實現(xiàn)氫基礎設施快速推廣的可行模式，液氫可成為最具成本效益的氫氣儲運路線。
中國氫能汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究總結(jié)
1、國家政策推動+產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，燃料電池汽車有望在2025年迎來發(fā)展拐點，并在2030年左右開始進入商業(yè)化階段
2、中國燃料電池汽車會從商用車起步，最終會進入到乘用車領域
3、中國氫能社會目標首先會從局部地區(qū)實現(xiàn)
4、中國氫能標準體系建設仍有極大發(fā)展空間，企業(yè)應積極參與標準體系構(gòu)建，并重點關(guān)注氫氣儲運、安全及檢測標準
5、加氫站氫氣儲存方式：高壓氣態(tài)存儲→ 低溫液態(tài)存儲
6、加氫站應結(jié)合制氫、儲氫和運氫的區(qū)域特點選擇不同的建站模式：初期以撬裝式氣態(tài)加氫站為主；固定式自制氫加氫站為輔
7、加氫站建設區(qū)位選擇應有側(cè)重點，近期→運營企業(yè)集中加氫地區(qū)（物流中轉(zhuǎn)+公交線路）；中期→運營路線重點布局（高速公路、長途汽車站）；長期→實現(xiàn)氫能社會城市廣泛布局
【英文版】China’s Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Industry Development Strategies
[Research institution] Tsinghua Automotive Strategy Research Institute (TASRI)
[Sponsor] Shell Hydrogen
[Key words] hydrogen, fuel cells, hydrogen refueling stations, regional advantages
[Abstract]
1. Hydrogen, as efficient and versatile energy, shows remarkable advantages in the application scenarios in China’s energy market. Hydrogen economy development has gradually become the social focus of China
2. The development of China’s hydrogen industry is supported by policies and the market, and areas with favorable factors are expected to build a regional hydrogen society in the first instance
3. It is suggested that hydrogen should be incorporated into fuel for transport instead of hazardous chemical substances. It is necessary for China to further define the national regulatory departments for the hydrogen mobility industry
4. The national standards and regulations for the hydrogen industry should be developed in harmony with the prevailing global standards with the aim to unleash China's potential for hydrogen in transport; FCV serves as a major scenario for the application of hydrogen; the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is an essential requirement for FCV development
5. Construction of hydrogen refueling stations requires thoughtful deployment in coordination with the industry development
Hydrogen and FCV Industry Development: Strong Coordination
China’s NEV industry development is still driven by policies at present. Guided by the national industry policies, NEVs will occupy greater market presence, and the industry will be finally driven by the market.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have their own advantages. Whilst there exist substantial differences in the development strategies for BEVs and FCVs, they are mutually complementary.
Since China has a vast territory, plus differences in local economic, policy and energy environments, China’s hydrogen energy industry development features regional characteristics. It is therefore difficult to lead the whole country into a hydrogen society. However, those areas with favorable factors such as advantageous hydrogen sources, clear infrastructure planning and strong policy support, are more likely to create a hydrogen society.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) will become one of the main drivers of hydrogen applications and the hydrogen industry development in the future. Thanks to high efficiency, cleanliness, long electric range, fast refueling, strong adaptability and other characteristics, FCVs, as a rising star in NEV segment, have gained widespread attention in the market, which will also accelerate the commercialization of FCVs.
There is a synergy between the hydrogen energy industry and FCV development. Hydrogen refueling stations serve as the key link between the two. Therefore, the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations are particularly important. In terms of selecting the location for hydrogen refueling stations, it is advised to make a comprehensive analysis of the regional characteristics, such as the hydrogen source, market demands and local government’s support.
Development and application of FCVs depend on the development of a hydrogen society. Otherwise, FCVs will be like “a tree without the root”. FCV development will generate hydrogen demand, which will potentially accelerate hydrogen industry development. However, it is necessary for China to further define the national regulatory department for the hydrogen industry, with the aim to harmonize with prevailing global standards. These regulations should facilitate the use of hydrogen, which should be incorporated into energy and fuel use instead of hazardous chemical substances.
Promoted by the government departments + enterprises’ enthusiasm in investment → Hot topics of FCVs rise again
China’s FCV development drivers are various: 1. The State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have jointly formulated the top-level design of the FCV industry; the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) promotes R&D of technologies; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) follows up to implement the industrialization development; 2. CAFC & NEV dual credits requirements for passenger cars, plus with the upcoming dual credits requirements for commercial vehicles will accelerate the development of the NEV industry; 3. FCVs are more applicable to heavy-duty commercial vehicles than BEVs; 4. Local governments and enterprises make active response to deploy the FCV industry. It is expected that China’s FCV industry will usher in a turning point for fast development by 2025.
China Will Start From Fuel Cell Commercial Vehicles With Broad Market Prospects
China’s FCVs are supported by the market and policies. With the government playing a leading role, China’s FCVs are expected to make breakthrough in the commercial vehicle sector. The number of commercial vehicles in China in 2018 reached 1,527 units.
China’s FCV market: Transform from a leading role of policies to sustainable market around 2030
Since incomplete infrastructure, high cost and key technologies will hinder market-oriented promotion at the early stage of the FCV industry, the industry development depends on policies. With the improvement of industrial chain and infrastructure concurrently to that, fuel cell passenger cars will gradually be introduced into the market, driving the FCV industry into the stage of sustainable commercial development.
Areas for Deploying Hydrogen Refueling Stations in China
Establishing a hydrogen society in certain areas in China requires such factors as: 1. Local government’s supporting policies; 2. Available hydrogen resource; 3. Local industrial base; 4. Drive from leading enterprises; 5. Good economic environment; 6. Market demand. All these factors should be fully considered when selecting areas for hydrogen refueling stations.
Taking the various factors concerning the establishment of a hydrogen society in certain areas into comprehensive analysis, it is highly possible for Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Zhangjiakou to enter a hydrogen society first, allowing in-advance deployment of hydrogen refueling stations.
未完（字數(shù)限制），請接著看《中國氫能汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究報告02》
